I have just come back from a trip to Scotland, where I was filming a piece on the prospects for independence (shown on News at Ten last night) now that Mr Salmond has secured himself a majority at Holyrood and promised that there will be a referendum on the subject.
It was tempting to conclude in answer simply; no better than they have ever been. But I’m not so sure.
It is certainly true to say that Mr Salmond’s famous victory had little to do with any great call for Scotland to go it alone. In fact, rather the reverse. The truth is that the Labour Party fought a dismal campaign, the Lib Dems were tainted by their involvement in coalition and the Tories – still – by the Thatcher years. Therefore, the thinking went, there really wasn’t much choice.
It is also true to say that there have been plenty of periods in the three hundred year history of the Union when talk of independence has seemed to be gaining steam only for it to drift away as the emotional ties of our shared history reasserted themselves.
And quite a history it has been. Scotland’s decision to voluntarily give up its independence and join the Union doesn’t have an endless stream of historical parallels. But no one can deny that Scots traders, politicians, economists, soldiers and administrators (to name but a few) have contributed at least their fair share (and perhaps more) to its success.
But as Mr Salmond points out, we don’t have an Empire any more. We’re not really a global power and our influence seems set only to decline as new powers rise in the East. Are the arguments to stick together therefore really, he says, still so strong?
One can – and no doubt we will – debate this nostrum endlessly in the run-up to his referendum, but what is clear is that Scotland is changing. When I was a student there a little over twenty years ago, we tended to view politics through the prism of what was going on in Westminster. Now, Scotland’s politics are the politics of Scotland. London seems like a foreign capital and is often reported as such. The more time passes, the more pressure one suspects there will be to repatriate further powers to Holyrood. If you’re not discussing health or education at Westminster, then is there really any point in discussing economic policy there?
This is Mr Salmond’s calculation and his argument and whilst it is true that the polls still suggest the number of people wanting full independence hasn’t changed much, that is to miss the fact that there is a dynamic at play here which seems to be moving in only one direction. And whilst many Scots may not have changed their minds yet, they do seem to me to be more open to the arguments.
Independence would be an enormous leap and one the Scottish people may in the end shy away from. But it’s a real possibility and one we should be alive to in the rest of the United Kingdom, since it would represent an enormous change to the country we have all grown up in. Unionist politicians certainly underestimate Mr Salmond at their peril.
Tags: alex salmond, independence, referendum, scotland, tom bradby
It’s interesting how many comments say the Scots are not special we don’t need them, let’s get shot of them. If the are so unspecial and not needed why are so many English posts so full of upset that the Scottish Gov (and I mean the Gov not the Scottish people) want a referendum. What is so upsetting about this? And you are right. Let England have it’s own referendum if they so wish. But, surely a nations Gov would want self rule. What is wrong with that? Silly English people. All bluff, anger and lager. lol
With ever diminishing revenues from the North sea It will be the biggest mistake that Scotland has ever done. I have no doubt that parting Scotland off on there own will be a priority for the English parliament. The fact that most of the revenue from the North Sea has been squandered on benefits by previous English governments is tough luck.
I fully agree with your comments Stephen.
One concern with Scotland going it alone is how much extra money will it cost us, and also the question regarding Scottish people being employed in UK government agencies etc. They would I guess have to be made redundant unless the Scottish were to create their own version of said agency. How much extra is that going to cost us?
Scotland will not be ‘going it alone’, Scotland is a little EU Region ruled from Brussels, that is now before ‘Independence’ and the same will apply after voting for (if ever)’Independence’, with fanatically Pro EU Salmond and the Scottish parliament (EU Regional Assembly) obedientely rubber stamping legislation imposed by the unelected unaccountable EU Commissioners in Brussels.
Will Scotland go it alone? Not a chance!
What would the Scots have to winge about.Its the English who should be going it alone. Time the Union was gone England was free, and had her own Parliament.
Over to you Mr Cameron, Oh but he has been quoted as saying he does not want to be “Prime Minister of England”
So perhaps it is time for Mr. Cameron to go it alone.
As you are undoubtedly right, the question has to be asked, when Scotland votes for independence, can the English have confidence in a civil service which up to that point will have been the UK Civil service and a Prime Minister who is on record as being “proud of the Scottish Blood in his veins”, who says he does not want to be Prime Minister of England, who thinks an imperfect Union (imperfect from England’s viewpoint) is better than no Union and who describes anyone in England who does not share his unconditional Unionism as a “sour little Englander”, to negotiate the terms of Scotland’s independence in a way that adequately and fairly protects England’s interests?
My answer to that question is no. The English need a national chamber, an executive and a First Minister to speak for them.
P.S. My apologies if this is a duplicate. A similar comment sent yesterday has not been posted while others have.
Clearly, what Mr Salmond has in mind is a creeping independence that may finally be confirmed in a referendum. It is hard to see what is going to stop him. The Unionists, for all their talk of ‘fighting to save the Union’, don’t really have any answers. Why would the English not let the Scots go if they want to? Nobody has ever voted for the Union in a referendum. Historically, it is an English empire and, in true colonial style, the British government has been doling out home rule, in different degrees, to those province which are ‘ready’ for it, in the hope of holding on to them. For the Union to survive, the Unionists need to look not to Scotland but to England. Only if England too is allowed to govern itself can there be a new Union based on popular consent, an agreement which recognises the sovereign right of the people of each nation to determine the form of governance that best suits their needs. Without that, ‘all things fall apart’. There is no sign unfortunately that the Unionist parties are willing to take that essential first step.
We in the Campaign for an English Parliament (CEP) have been aware of Scotland’s call for independance since devolution in 1997, but if as seems possible Scotland does take the plunge and goes it alone then Scotland will have to discuss an independant settlement with an English Parliament and not a parliament representing the whole of the UK. A UK govt with reperesntatives from all over the UK with 55 MPs coming from Scotland cannot negotiate with Scotland on independance without some form of balance, they will not look after England’s interest but thier own. Only an English Parliament will look after the needs of England and defend England’s rights
Why should the rest of the UK have to hang around waiting for the Scots to decide? What’s so special about them?
In the 2010 general election they voted SIX SNPs to Westminster, no increase from the previous general election. That was no mandate for a referendum, just the opposite. Now we are supposed to accept the blackmail vote that saw the SNP take charge of the Scottish Parliament.
The first thing the SNP did was put back their independence referendum yet again.
Why the hell should we put up with this blackmail?
By the way we English don’t have our own parliament and are denied even a referendum on one. Meanwhile the Welsh have just had their THIRD on their assembly.
If the UK denies me and fellow Englishmen a say on how we are to be governed then the UK can take a run and jump.
If the English had already had a say on England’s independence, the Scots would have been independent now by default. That’s why we aren’t asked.